Flávio Bolsonaro leads by 2.3 million, and 33.4 million stayed home

Flávio Bolsonaro has topped the first round of Brazil's presidential election with 47.03% of valid votes against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 45.16%, overturning final polls that had put the incumbent ahead. Neither passed 50%, so the electoral court confirmed a runoff on October 25, 2026. Bolsonaro's lead of roughly 2.3 million votes puts his father's movement within reach of returning to the presidency after sweeping gains in Congress. ^{[1] [2] [5]}

With 99.99% of polling stations counted after the October 4 vote, Bolsonaro had about 56.1 million votes against Lula's 53.8 million, a gap of 1.87 percentage points. The 45-year-old Liberal Party senator, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, defied every final poll, which had put Lula about three points ahead. ^{[1] [5] [7]}

The result gives Bolsonaro the stronger starting position for the three-week campaign. No first-round runner-up has won Brazil's presidential runoff since 1989. Yet roughly 9.1 million people voted for the four defeated candidates, and 33.4 million registered voters stayed home. Who returns, who switches and who stays away will decide whether the lead holds. ^{[3] [4] [5]}

The movement's gains went far beyond its presidential candidate. Four Bolsonaro relatives won seats in Congress, the Liberal Party will become the largest force in the Senate, and allied hard-right parties together will hold an upper-house majority. Political scientist Miguel Lago described the result as the worst night for progressive and moderate centrist parties since the late 1980s. ^{[1] [3]}

The Senate result also creates a route towards an amnesty for Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Any amnesty would need approval in both houses. ^{[1] [3]}

The votes available are not all available to Lula

The simplest runoff calculation begins with the defeated candidates. Augusto Cury took 2.89%, Renan Santos 2.24%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.18% and Romeu Zema 0.27%. Their roughly 9.1 million votes amount to about four times Bolsonaro's lead. None had endorsed a finalist as of October 5. ^[5]

But a large pool is not necessarily a friendly one. Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation said the roughly 8% won by other candidates was largely centre-right and "very unlikely to shift for Lula". His assessment makes turnout, rather than a sweep of defeated rivals' supporters, Lula's main route back. ^[3]

Nor can Bolsonaro simply add those votes to his total. Cury said he would remain silent on the second round. Santos said he would campaign for neither finalist and called both "crooks". Caiado said he would wait to meet his party's chairman, Gilberto Kassab, while their Social Democratic Party, known as the PSD, declared itself neutral. ^[5]

Zema is the clearest potential bridge to Bolsonaro. He said he would vote against Lula's Workers' Party, known as the PT, and his Novo party planned to formalise support for Bolsonaro. That endorsement had not yet been completed. ^[5]

For Lula, the much larger target is the electorate that did not vote. According to electoral court data reported by The Rio Times, abstention reached 21.08%, or 33.4 million of 158.7 million registered voters. It was the highest abstention rate for a presidential first round since 1998. Among the 125.1 million ballots cast, another 2.30 million were blank and 3.67 million were null. ^[4]

Those figures measure opportunity, not support. Political scientist Camila Rocha, who interviews undecided voters, found "a great deal of voter apathy", particularly among people not aligned with Bolsonarismo who might vote for Lula. She also found that undecided voters saw "renewal" as Flávio Bolsonaro's main positive quality. Lula must overcome indifference while competing against that appeal. ^[1]

A lead built before the runoff

Bolsonaro used his first speech in Brasília to claim a mandate for change. He thanked the 56 million voters who backed him and said, "Brazil wants change." He went further: "The end of the PT era is hereby decreed." He did not mention his father or God in the speech. ^{[3] [6]}

Lula's response combined surprise with the promise of a different campaign. "I admit, I was convinced I would win in the first round," he said. "The game is about to start. We are in extra time." He said a contest with only two candidates would allow him to show the differences between their proposals for Brazil. ^{[1] [2]}

He also signalled a sharper personal attack. Lula cited allegations concerning Flávio Bolsonaro's ties to paramilitary groups and the Banco Master corruption case, and promised to expose his rival's "dark past". Bolsonaro is under investigation for corruption and denies the allegations against him. ^{[1] [6]}

There is a reason for Bolsonaro to be cautious despite his lead. Analysts cited by Reuters said some protest votes for right-wing candidates may already have been concentrated behind him in the first round, limiting the additional support he can draw in the second. A strong first result can mean a strong base. It can also mean that much of the easiest recruitment is finished. ^[2]

The change from 2022 is nevertheless large. In that year's first round, Lula took 48.43% and Jair Bolsonaro 43.20%. Ashmore Group's Gustavo Medeiros calculated that Flávio improved on his father's result by about 3.8 percentage points, while Lula fell by about 3.2 points. Medeiros said abstention, at roughly two points above the historical average, did not explain the swing. ^{[4] [7]}

The comparison shows why Lula faces more than a turnout problem. His share of valid votes fell while the Bolsonaro candidate's rose. Bringing people back to the ballot box is his largest opportunity, but his campaign must also address the shift among those who already voted. ^{[4] [7]}

Lago offered a bleak assessment for the incumbent. "Miracles are possible in politics. But I don't see that happening," he said. "I don't see Flávio losing this election now." ^[1]

The family has already won power

Whatever happens in the runoff, the Bolsonaro family has secured a larger presence in Congress. Michelle Bolsonaro and Carlos Bolsonaro won Senate seats. Jair Renan Bolsonaro and Renato Bolsonaro won seats in the lower house. The Liberal Party will hold 28 of the Senate's 81 seats, rising to 43 when other hard-right parties are included. In the 513-seat lower house, the party won 121 seats against the Workers' Party's 70. ^{[1] [3]}

The broader alliance also won important state contests. Tarcísio de Freitas was re-elected governor of São Paulo, and Sérgio Moro was elected governor of Paraná. Both served as ministers under Jair Bolsonaro. Nikolas Ferreira and Lucas Pavanato each received more than three million votes, becoming the most-voted legislators in Brazilian history. Pro-Lula Senate candidates Marina Silva, Benedita da Silva and Simone Tebet all lost. ^[1]

Those results show that the presidential lead was not an isolated success. Andre Pagliarini of Louisiana State University said the legislative outcome suggested "a deeper popular grounding for the bolsonarista project than many expected". The movement has strengthened its position across the presidency contest, Congress and major state governments. ^{[1] [2]}

The most immediate legislative consequence could concern the former president. Jair Bolsonaro, 71, could not run this year and is serving his sentence under house arrest. A sympathetic Senate majority gives his movement the strength to pursue an amnesty, but its lower-house position is less commanding. The Liberal Party's 121 seats are well short of a majority there. ^{[1] [3]}

Whichever man wins the presidency will face a Congress with a powerful Bolsonaro-aligned bloc. For Lula, reversing the presidential vote deficit would therefore be only the first challenge. For Flávio Bolsonaro, victory would put an allied president alongside the movement's expanded legislative strength. ^{[1] [3]}

Markets have picked a favourite

Investors reacted sharply on Monday, October 5. The iShares MSCI Brazil exchange-traded fund rose more than 14% in early trading, while the Ibovespa gained about 9% to a record high. The rally reflected expectations of more business-friendly policy and fiscal tightening, with gross public debt at about 82% of GDP. ^[7]

Polymarket traders put Bolsonaro's chances of winning the runoff at about 84%, another sign of how sharply expectations changed after the first round. The market response gives Bolsonaro a clear vote of confidence from investors as he seeks to turn his electoral lead into a majority. ^[7]

Foreign leaders also moved quickly. US President Donald Trump called the result "a very, very big victory" while predicting a close runoff. Argentine President Javier Milei celebrated Bolsonaro's "historic" victory, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wished him good luck. ^[1]

The next campaign decisions are concrete. Caiado must decide whether to endorse after meeting Kassab. Novo's planned backing for Bolsonaro still needs to be formalised. Both finalists must work out how to reach voters who chose someone else or stayed home, while the electoral court finishes the tiny remaining share of the count. ^[5]

Bolsonaro enters those three weeks with the lead and a stronger congressional movement. Lula needs new support from an electorate whose centre-right voters are unlikely to move towards him and whose potential Lula voters include many who stayed away. On October 25, the decisive number will not be the first-round gap. It will be how many each campaign brings back. ^{[1] [3] [4]}