Farmers could miss planting while Hormuz talks drag on

The United States and Iran must agree within weeks to protect fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz or farmers could miss planting seasons, a UN official warned. ^[1]

Jorge Moreira da Silva, the UN under-secretary-general leading the effort, said a proposed shipping mechanism could begin operating within seven to 10 days of an agreement. It has not yet been activated, while fertilizer shipments from the Gulf remain largely halted. ^[1]

The warning puts an agricultural deadline on negotiations over the waterway. Before the war, Hormuz carried roughly one-third of globally traded urea, a widely used nitrogen fertilizer, and nearly half of seaborne sulfur, another important input for fertilizer production, according to Reuters. A prolonged interruption threatens harvests and food prices far beyond the Gulf. ^[1][4]

Speaking to Reuters in Bangkok on October 14, on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, Moreira da Silva said missing the planting season would significantly reduce agricultural productivity and deepen the impact on prices. He said the fertilizer arrangement could proceed alongside negotiations on a broader agreement. ^[1]

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described global food supply in August as "collateral damage" in conflicts. He presented the proposed passage mechanism as a temporary measure while full freedom of navigation was restored and political solutions were pursued. ^[3]

A channel for fertilizer

The plan would establish a coordination center in Oman to register vessels and arrange safe passage through Hormuz. UN monitors would work with local authorities at Gulf ports to verify cargo loading, and vessels would be tracked during their journeys. Additional inspections could take place if countries raised concerns. ^[1]

Moreira da Silva said passage by as few as five vessels a day could keep fertilizer moving to countries in critical need. That gives the proposal a modest operational target: a limited flow of agricultural supplies through a waterway whose wider reopening remains bound up in conflict and diplomacy. ^[1]

The task force was announced in March with an initial focus on commercial fertilizers and related raw materials. Alongside Moreira da Silva, it includes representatives from UN Trade and Development, the International Maritime Organization and the International Chamber of Commerce. Its stated purpose is safe, orderly and predictable transit for humanitarian purposes. ^[2]

At the launch, the UN said tanker traffic through Hormuz had fallen by more than 90 percent, citing the Food and Agriculture Organization. It warned that the disruption threatened agricultural production and global food security. ^[2]

The mechanism would cover a defined category of cargo rather than reopen the strait to all trade. Guterres said it would not replace the restoration of navigational rights and freedoms or political efforts to end the conflicts. ^[3]

No agreement is established in the reporting, and the operational details remain incomplete. The accounts do not identify which countries would receive priority, when their planting windows close, how much cargo five daily vessels could carry, or the precise security guarantees governing transit. Moreira da Silva declined to specify the bottlenecks holding up implementation. ^[1]

The cost reaches the fields

The Gulf's importance to farming extends well beyond the ships currently waiting for passage. The International Food Policy Research Institute, or IFPRI, said up to 30 percent of global fertilizer trade passed through Hormuz in 2024. Over 2023-2025, Gulf countries were the largest regional exporters of urea and ammonia, both major sources of nitrogen for crops. ^[4]

They were also the second-largest regional exporters of DAP and MAP, two widely used phosphate fertilizers. The concentration means disruption can affect several crop nutrients at once, rather than leave buyers searching for a replacement for a single product. ^[4]

IFPRI identified Africa and South Asia as particularly vulnerable because of their dependence on Persian Gulf fertilizer and gas. Gas is an important input in nitrogen fertilizer production, so energy disruption can compound the loss of finished fertilizer supplies. ^[4]

For farmers, the pressure can arrive through both availability and price. IFPRI said sustained increases in fertilizer and energy costs could lead to lower fertilizer use and reduced crop yields. Lower-income countries would have less room to cushion the effects through subsidies. ^[4]

That makes the planting deadline more unforgiving than a shipping delay alone. Fertilizer that arrives after farmers need it cannot undo a missed application or recover a missed planting window. Moreira da Silva's warning is that a diplomatic delay can become a production loss, with higher food prices following. ^[1][4]

An International Chamber of Commerce-commissioned model published in August illustrated the potential scale of a sustained shock. Its most severe scenario put global cereal prices as much as 81 percent above 2020 levels. The chamber stressed that the research was an early-stage preprint, had not been peer reviewed and offered scenarios, not forecasts. ^[5]

Diplomacy against the calendar

The fertilizer proposal is caught in wider US-Iran negotiations. According to Reuters, the sides had exchanged proposals through intermediaries since a June interim ceasefire collapsed. Tehran's conditions and Washington's insistence on addressing Iran's nuclear program were among the obstacles. ^[1]

A US State Department spokesperson said the US military had assisted thousands of commercial vessels transiting Hormuz and would continue action against what Washington called Iran's attempts to disrupt freedom of navigation. The White House and Iran's Embassy in Bangkok did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment. ^[1]

Moreira da Silva's proposed route forward is to let the fertilizer arrangement advance alongside the larger talks. Once Washington and Tehran agree, he said, the UN mechanism could be operating within seven to 10 days. His deadline for securing that agreement is the next few weeks. ^[1]