Developing: Vučić Concedes as Student List Heads for a Serbian Majority

Aleksandar Vučić conceded Serbia's parliamentary election on October 25 as projections put a student-backed movement on course for a majority, opening a path from street protests to government. ^[1]

The projection by polling firm Ipsos and Serbian research group CeSID, reported by regional news channel N1, gave the Student List 52% of the vote and 138 seats in the 250-member assembly. Vučić's list was projected to take 39.3% and 104 seats. A parliamentary majority requires 126. ^[1]

Vučić said the final result was not yet available, but sample results made clear that his side had lost. The official count, possible challenges and the formation of a government remain unsettled. His concession nevertheless gives political weight to a projected defeat for a leadership that has dominated Serbia for years. ^[1][3][4]

The movement challenging him grew out of demonstrations after a railway station canopy collapsed in Novi Sad in November 2024, killing 16 people. Protesters treated the disaster as a symbol of corruption and institutional failure, then built an election campaign around accountability, education and the rule of law. ^[3][4]

Election monitors also raised concerns about the handling of the vote. Raša Nedeljkov, monitoring chief at CRTA, a Serbian election-monitoring organisation, described blocked access to the Republican Electoral Commission building as worrying. CRTA said citizens had been prevented from approaching to submit complaints. ^[1]

Enough seats to govern

The projected result would put the Student List 12 seats above the majority threshold. If that allocation holds, it would have enough parliamentary votes to support a government without needing another list to supply the missing seats. That is a stronger position than simply finishing first. ^[1]

It would also transform the responsibilities of the movement. A campaign built around demands for accountability would gain the parliamentary strength to pursue them, while becoming answerable for the government's own decisions.

Before conceding, Vučić had said he expected the Student List to win a majority and his Serbian Progressive Party, known as SNS, to take 105 seats. That was his expectation at the time, separate from the later Ipsos/CeSID projection of 104. Both pointed towards the same political outcome: his side falling short of control of the assembly. ^[1]

The Student List fielded 250 candidates and is led by Ilija Srdanović, a cardiologist. Many of its candidates are largely unfamiliar to voters, and before the election it was unclear who would become prime minister. Winning seats would settle the balance of parliamentary strength, but the movement would still have to choose the people who exercise it. ^[3][4]

A much larger electorate turns out

CRTA estimated turnout at 67.8% by 7 p.m., with a margin of error of plus or minus 0.9 percentage points. At the same point in the 2023 election, turnout was 55.5%. That puts the estimated increase at 12.3 percentage points. ^[2]

The comparison is between the same hour in each election, rather than between an election-day estimate and an earlier final total. It shows a substantial rise in participation before voting ended. It does not, by itself, show which list drew those additional voters. ^[2]

The challengers and the governing party offered sharply different reasons to vote. The Student List put corruption, institutional accountability and education at the centre of its campaign. SNS offered continuity, promising higher pensions and public-sector salaries, investment in healthcare and support for young couples. ^[3][4]

The campaign was also bitter. Vučić said the students were funded by foreign agents in Croatia and Montenegro, an allegation the students denied. Opposition figures and students have accused Vučić and his party of repression, corruption and spying on opponents, accusations they deny. ^[3][4]

CRTA's pre-election assessment described shrinking freedoms and widening inequality among electoral contestants and voters. It also identified a substantial imbalance in national television coverage. Those findings form part of the conditions in which the student-backed challenge reached the ballot. ^[2][5]

Complaints, then the work of governing

CRTA observers reported ballot photographing at 48% of polling stations. By 4 p.m., they had recorded pressure on voters, polling-board members or observers at 29% of stations. The organisation also reported an increase in violent incidents outside polling stations during the day. These were observations from its monitoring operation. ^[2]

The reported obstruction at the electoral commission raises a practical issue for the next stage: citizens must be able to bring complaints to the body responsible for handling the election. A concession cannot substitute for that process or for an official count. ^[1]

Beyond the count, a Student List government would inherit foreign-policy choices that were less prominent in its campaign than its domestic programme. Serbia's relations with the European Union are strained over stalled reforms, while Vučić has pursued close ties with China and Russia. The projected result supplies no mandate to assume a particular change in those relationships. ^[3][4]

Its clearest electoral commitments concern how Serbia is governed at home. The movement's demand for accountability began with a concrete disaster and broadened into a challenge to institutions. A parliamentary majority would give it the means to act, and remove much of its ability to blame parliamentary weakness for inaction.

The Student List's choice of prime minister is still ahead. ^[3][4]