Nearly 100,000 ordered to leave as Cyclone Arnab nears India's east coast

Indian authorities have ordered nearly 100,000 residents to leave vulnerable areas as Cyclone Arnab approaches the east coast, threatening destructive winds and flooding by Wednesday, October 28. ^[1]

The estimate covers evacuation orders in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. AFP, citing local media on October 27, put the numbers told to move at as many as 50,000 in Andhra Pradesh and 48,000 in Odisha. These are not verified totals of people who have reached safety. ^[1]

The India Meteorological Department, or IMD, forecast the cyclone to cross the coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, by Wednesday forenoon. It forecast sustained winds of 115-125 km/h, with gusts reaching 140 km/h. ^[3]

Authorities have closed schools in affected areas, prohibited sea fishing and placed rescue teams on standby. The immediate task is to get residents out of flood-prone settlements while preparing shelters and healthcare facilities to receive them. ^[3][4]

The storm remained offshore in the October 27 updates. Its landfall location, timing and strength are forecasts subject to change, and the number of people who have completed evacuation in each state is not yet established. ^[3]

Moving people before the coast is hit

Andhra Pradesh had identified 570,000 people as vulnerable by October 26 and planned to begin evacuations that evening, according to Reuters. That figure describes the population considered at risk, a much broader group than the people subsequently reported to have been ordered to leave. ^[2]

By October 27, the state government had directed officials to evacuate flood-prone areas and give priority to vulnerable residents. Officials said 4,711 pregnant women would be moved to safer healthcare facilities, making medical transfers a substantial part of the operation. ^[3]

Those transfers require a different destination from a general evacuation. The state's stated plan places pregnant women in healthcare facilities, while Odisha is preparing cyclone shelters for residents leaving exposed areas. ^[3][4]

Odisha had begun moving people from vulnerable areas by October 27. It also closed educational institutions in six southern districts, extending preparations beyond the shoreline to areas facing the approaching weather. ^[3]

The state has around 880 multipurpose cyclone and flood shelters. Authorities were readying them with supplies and facilities, with medical teams and ambulances on standby. Odisha's Revenue and Disaster Management Minister Suresh Kumar Pujari said the government was on high alert and had arranged to move residents to safer locations. ^[4]

The operational measure that matters next is shelter arrivals. An order tells people to leave, but the protection it offers depends on their reaching a safer building before conditions deteriorate. The evacuation totals will need to show how far that work has progressed.

Wind, rain and boats returning to harbour

The IMD's warnings describe a threat to homes, services and livelihoods at the same time. It warned of the possible total destruction of thatched houses, local flooding, uprooted power and communication poles, and widespread damage to standing crops. ^[1]

That puts the evacuation effort alongside preparations for disruption after landfall. Andhra Pradesh had ordered rapid restoration of electricity if outages occur, while Odisha was stocking shelters and positioning medical help. ^[3][4]

Rain is a major part of the danger. The IMD forecast heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in northern and central coastal Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha. Its October 27 bulletin warned of extremely heavy rain in parts of both states. ^[2][3]

The forecast also has Arnab moving inland after landfall, carrying further rainfall risks. The coast is the immediate focus, but crossing the shoreline will not end the weather threat. ^[3]

At sea, Andhra Pradesh officials said 30,043 fishing boats had returned to harbours by the October 27 update. The state had directed boats to return, and fishing restrictions were part of the preparations in both states. ^[3]

In Odisha, the effort to bring fishers back included loudspeaker announcements warning against going to sea. Bibhuti Bhusan Rout, the state's deputy director of marine fisheries, said the department had asked the Coast Guard and marine police to help bring fishers ashore. ^[4]

The boat count gives one concrete measure of preparations already carried out. Alongside evacuation transport and shelter readiness, returning vessels to harbour is work that has to happen before the strongest weather arrives.

A coast preparing with a long memory

Odisha's preparations take place in a region where the October 29, 1999 super cyclone remains a powerful memory. That storm killed thousands, particularly in low-lying parts of Jagatsinghpur district, according to Down To Earth. ^[4]

That history helps explain the urgency of moving residents early. It does not determine Arnab's outcome. The current warnings concern a storm forecast to bring severe winds, intense rain and damage to vulnerable buildings and infrastructure. ^[1][3]

The next operational updates should put completed evacuations alongside the orders already issued. For Andhra Pradesh, the task includes transfers to healthcare facilities. For Odisha, it includes getting residents into shelters stocked to receive them. ^[3][4]

The IMD said it was monitoring the system. Its next bulletins will guide preparations along the coast, with landfall forecast for Wednesday forenoon near Yanam. ^[3]