China Says a Super El Niño Has Formed as Ocean Heat Hits a Record

China's National Climate Center says a super El Niño formed in September, a major Pacific climate signal arriving as global ocean temperatures reach record highs. ^[1][4]

The center's sea-surface-temperature index averaged 2.54°C above its reference level from July through September, crossing its 2.5°C threshold for a super event, according to Chinese state broadcaster CGTN. The report attributed the announcement to the center's chief forecaster, Zhao Junhu. ^[1]

An independent assessment from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, also shows an El Niño gathering strength. Its October 8 discussion put the chance of meeting its own historical-strength criterion in October-December at 83%. The World Meteorological Organization expects the pattern to affect rainfall and temperatures well into 2027. ^[2][3]

The immediate significance is the combination: a strengthening ocean-atmosphere disturbance in the tropical Pacific and exceptional warmth across the world's ocean surface. The event gives governments and forecasters a powerful reason to sharpen seasonal planning, while the eventual consequences will depend on where and how the atmosphere responds.

The threshold China says has been crossed

According to CGTN's account, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific entered an El Niño state in May. The three-month running average of the Chinese center's temperature index then remained above 0.5°C for five consecutive months. By September, the monthly reading had reached 2.94°C above its reference level. ^[1]

A running average smooths out shorter fluctuations. Here, the center's super-event classification rests on the July-September average, rather than September's higher reading alone. At 2.54°C, that average cleared the stated threshold by 0.04°C. ^[1]

The center classified this as an eastern Pacific-type event, meaning the warmest waters were concentrated in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Parts of that region's warm pool were more than 3°C above their climatological average in September, according to the report. ^[1]

Zhao forecast that sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific would continue rising over the next three months, reaching their peak in late autumn or early winter. He also forecast that the event would become the strongest since systematic monitoring began. That is a projection of the coming peak, not a record already measured. ^[1]

The word "super" describes a strength category under the Chinese center's system. It is not a universal scale of damage. An ocean-temperature threshold cannot, by itself, tell a farmer how much rain will fall or a city whether its rivers will flood.

There are two important limits to the announcement. CGTN's report does not identify the Chinese index's monitoring region or supply its underlying dataset, and NOAA uses a different index for its historical-strength threshold. The sources also do not confirm the proposed forecasts of drought in Australia or India, or heavy rain across the Americas. ^[1][2][3]

The ocean and atmosphere are moving together

NOAA's observations give the announcement a substantial independent foundation: the Pacific is warming, and the atmosphere is responding. Its October assessment cited warm surface and subsurface waters, changes in winds and rainfall, and negative Southern Oscillation indices, measures of an atmospheric pressure pattern associated with El Niño. ^[2]

That combination matters because El Niño is a coupled ocean-atmosphere pattern. Warm water alone is only part of the mechanism. Changes in atmospheric circulation help carry its influence beyond the patch of ocean where the warming is measured. ^[2]

NOAA reported a temperature departure of +2.1°C in Niño-3.4, one central-Pacific monitoring region, and +3.0°C in Niño-3, farther east. Those readings fit the Chinese center's account of particularly strong warming in the eastern Pacific. ^[1][2]

For its historical-strength assessment, NOAA uses the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. Its criterion is a three-month value of at least +2.5°C, assessed against events since 1950. The agency gave an 83% chance of reaching that level in October-December and said a strong-to-very-strong event was likely through January-March 2027, with a probability above 83%. ^[2]

The two agencies therefore point in the same direction: a strong event that is still developing. But NOAA's probability for a forthcoming three-month period does not independently certify China's September classification. ^[1][2]

NOAA also cautioned that greater El Niño strength increases the likelihood of characteristic effects without guaranteeing them. That is the practical rule for using these forecasts: strength changes the odds, while regional outlooks are needed to turn those odds into useful decisions. ^[2]

A hot Pacific in an already hot ocean

The event is developing against a global temperature backdrop that is already exceptional. NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information recorded August 2026 as the warmest August in its global surface-temperature record, which runs from 1850 to 2026. Global sea-surface temperature reached an all-time high. ^[4]

The WMO likewise reported an observed global sea-surface-temperature high in August. It said El Niño conditions were fuelling record temperatures across vast areas of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, while identifying El Niño as one of several influences on that month's climate. ^[3]

That makes the coming peak consequential even before its regional effects are mapped. Forecasters are watching further Pacific warming develop within an ocean that has already broken a global heat record. ^[1][3][4]

The next measurements will test Zhao's forecast of a record-strength peak and show how the event develops across the different monitoring systems. NOAA's next monthly diagnostic discussion is scheduled for November 12, 2026. ^[1][2]