China Says a Super El Niño Has Formed as Ocean Heat Hits a Record
Chinese monitoring data put the Pacific warming event above the center's "super" threshold in September. NOAA independently reports a strengthening El Niño, with effects on rainfall and temperature expected to extend into 2027.
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by Mira Novak
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China's National Climate Center says a super El Niño formed in September, a major Pacific climate signal arriving as global ocean temperatures reach record highs.
The center's sea-surface-temperature index averaged 2.54°C above its reference level from July through September, crossing its 2.5°C threshold for a super event, according to Chinese state broadcaster CGTN. The report attributed the announcement to the center's chief forecaster, Zhao Junhu.
An independent assessment from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, also shows an El Niño gathering strength. Its October 8 discussion put the chance of meeting its own historical-strength criterion in October-December at 83%. The World Meteorological Organization expects the pattern to affect rainfall and temperatures well into 2027.
The immediate significance is the combination: a strengthening ocean-atmosphere disturbance in the tropical Pacific and exceptional warmth across the world's ocean surface. The event gives governments and forecasters a powerful reason to sharpen seasonal planning, while the eventual consequences will depend on where and how the atmosphere responds.
