"Overshoot Is Not Surrender," Guterres Said

The world's climate pledges now point to a hotter future, according to a UN assessment that identifies the United States' retreat from the Paris Agreement as a reason. ^[2]

The UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026 puts warming this century at 2.6°C if countries fulfil their national climate commitments and continue similar efforts. That is about 0.1°C higher than last year's pledge-based estimate, according to AP's account of the assessment. ^[1][2]

Under policies already in place, the projection remains 2.8°C, unchanged from last year. UNEP attributes the worsening pledge-based outlook to the US withdrawal and revised estimates of historical emissions, while saying newly submitted national climate plans have made a negligible difference. ^[1][2]

Released on October 21 and titled The Point of Return, the assessment says the chance to avoid or sharply limit a temporary rise above 1.5°C has been lost. It still sets out a route back below that level by the end of the century, though one requiring steep emissions cuts and large-scale carbon removal. ^[2]

"Overshoot is not surrender," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said. He said countries could still reduce the size and duration of the temperature rise and bring warming back below 1.5°C before the century ends. ^[2]

The US enters the arithmetic twice

The US finding has two parts: the effect of withdrawing a national commitment from the international climate effort, and an increase in the country's emissions. One concerns what governments promise to do. The other concerns pollution already being released. ^[1][2]

US emissions rose by 133 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025, according to AP's account of the assessment. That is 133 million metric tons, using a measure that expresses the warming effects of different greenhouse gases on a common scale. The assessment attributes the increase to greater electricity demand and a rebound in coal-fired power generation. ^[1]

AP also reported that 124 countries increased their emissions in 2025, while 63 reduced them. Among the countries whose emissions rose, the combined increase was 189 million tons of carbon dioxide, with the United States accounting for 70%, according to AP. ^[1]

That 70% is a share of the increase among countries with rising emissions. It is not the US share of all global emissions, nor a measure of its contribution to warming over history. The denominator matters: this is a finding about which countries added pollution in a particular year. ^[1]

The electricity finding gives the policy debate a concrete foundation. The assessment connects the US increase to demand for power and the use of coal to supply it. A climate commitment has to survive those decisions about how electricity is generated if it is to change the emissions total. ^[1]

The published findings do not separate how much of the roughly 0.1°C revision comes from the US withdrawal and how much comes from revised historical emissions estimates. A direct US government response to the assessment was not available. ^[1][2]

Promises still fall short

The emissions gap is the distance between the cuts countries commit to make and the cuts needed to meet agreed temperature goals. UNEP's annual assessment measures that shortfall. It is an institutional assessment, not a new peer-reviewed paper reporting a fresh model experiment. ^[2]

Its scenarios also distinguish promises from policies. The 2.8°C projection describes a world continuing with current policies. The 2.6°C projection assumes countries deliver their nationally determined contributions, the formal climate pledges submitted under the Paris Agreement, and maintain similar efforts afterward. ^[2]

Even delivery of those pledges leaves warming well above the agreement's goal of holding the increase well below 2°C while pursuing 1.5°C. UNEP's most optimistic pledge-related scenario, which adds fulfilment of countries' longer-term net-zero targets, reaches 2.1°C this century. ^[2]

The progression is stark: policies, national pledges and additional net-zero promises each produce a different result, but none of those headline scenarios reaches 1.5°C. Governments have work to do both in strengthening their commitments and in making existing commitments real. ^[2]

The new plans submitted since last year have barely moved the projections, UNEP says. That leaves a diplomatic process producing more commitments without yet producing a meaningful improvement in the expected temperature outcome. ^[2]

A return requires cuts now and removal later

UNEP's lowest-overshoot pathway starts with reductions measured against 2025 emissions: 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040. By that last date, annual global greenhouse gas emissions would need to be less than a third of their 2025 level. ^[2]

Those cuts aim to limit peak warming around the middle of the century to 1.7-1.8°C. The pathway then offers about a 50% chance of returning warming to or below 1.5°C by 2100. That is a conditional route back, with roughly even odds, rather than a guaranteed recovery. ^[2]

It also requires large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and permanent storage. UNEP says the feasibility of delivering that removal is uncertain. The route therefore asks countries to do two difficult things: cut the flow of new pollution sharply and later remove enough accumulated carbon to help lower temperatures. ^[2]

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said every additional fraction of a degree, and every additional year above 1.5°C, increases climate risks, including floods, heatwaves and wildfires. The value of cutting emissions does not disappear when a temperature threshold is crossed. ^[2]

The next benchmark in UNEP's proposed pathway is 2030: global emissions 18% below their 2025 level. The US increase puts one of the countries central to that effort on a course that must reverse. ^[1][2]