"Overshoot Is Not Surrender," Guterres Said
Full delivery of national climate pledges now points to 2.6°C of warming this century, about 0.1°C more than last year's estimate. The UN assessment links the deterioration to the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of past emissions.
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The world's climate pledges now point to a hotter future, according to a UN assessment that identifies the United States' retreat from the Paris Agreement as a reason.
The UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026 puts warming this century at 2.6°C if countries fulfil their national climate commitments and continue similar efforts. That is about 0.1°C higher than last year's pledge-based estimate, according to AP's account of the assessment.
Under policies already in place, the projection remains 2.8°C, unchanged from last year. UNEP attributes the worsening pledge-based outlook to the US withdrawal and revised estimates of historical emissions, while saying newly submitted national climate plans have made a negligible difference.
Released on October 21 and titled The Point of Return, the assessment says the chance to avoid or sharply limit a temporary rise above 1.5°C has been lost. It still sets out a route back below that level by the end of the century, though one requiring steep emissions cuts and large-scale carbon removal.
"Overshoot is not surrender," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said. He said countries could still reduce the size and duration of the temperature rise and bring warming back below 1.5°C before the century ends.
