"With the numbers we have now, there is no government"

Israel's partial election count has left both Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot short of a governing majority, giving Arab-led parties a potentially decisive role in forming the next government. ^[3]

With 84% of votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc had 54 seats, Eisenkot's opposition alliance, the Change bloc, had 49 and Arab-led parties had 17, according to the latest figures published on October 28. A majority in the 120-seat Knesset, Israel's parliament, requires 61. ^[3]

The opposition and Arab-led parties would together have 66 seats, enough to replace Netanyahu if they agreed to cooperate. But most Jewish opposition parties campaigned against working with Arab-majority lists, while Netanyahu's route to a majority requires persuading a smaller opposition party to join him. Neither route currently amounts to a governing agreement. ^[1][3]

"With the numbers we have now, there is no government," Mansour Abbas, leader of the Arab-led Ra'am party, told Israel's Channel 12. Abbas said he hoped the final results would put the anti-Netanyahu parties, including his own, at or above 61 seats. ^[2]

The Daily Inference reported before the vote that accountability and military service divided Netanyahu and Eisenkot, a former military chief. The October 27 election has now produced a more immediate test: whether either man can assemble the parliamentary support needed to govern.

A majority on paper, a barrier in practice

Eisenkot has said he is open to cooperation with Arab parties only if they recognize Israel as a Jewish state and Hamas as an extremist group. According to The Guardian, those conditions effectively ruled out a deal. The Democrats were the only Jewish opposition party then expressly open to cooperation. ^[3]

Avigdor Lieberman, another opposition leader, has also said he would not sit in a minority government dependent on Arab-party support. That closes off an arrangement in which Arab parties could support a government from outside the cabinet rather than formally join it. ^[1]

These positions leave the opposition with a problem that counting ballots alone cannot solve. Its potential majority depends on parties with which several of its leaders have promised not to work. Reaching 66 on a calculator is considerably easier than reaching it in a coalition negotiation.

Ra'am has already crossed that divide once. Abbas's party joined the diverse coalition that governed from 2021 to 2022, and he has said he wants to join the next government. That precedent gives the opposition a model for cooperation, even as its leaders' current positions obstruct another agreement. ^[1][2]

The Arab-led parties' showing makes those choices harder to avoid. Exit polls had projected a combined 19 seats for the Joint List, an alliance of Arab-led parties, and Ra'am, the separate Arab-led list alongside it. The later partial count put Arab-led parties at 17, still a substantial parliamentary presence and more than enough to cover the opposition's 12-seat shortfall. The exit polls and the partial count are different stages of the result, neither a certified allocation. ^[2][3]

Turnout was 77.7% overall, according to the Central Elections Committee figures cited by Al Jazeera. Channel 12 estimated turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel at around 80%. The latter is an estimate, but it points to strong participation behind the Arab parties' electoral showing. ^[2]

Netanyahu needs to win someone over

Netanyahu's Likud was the largest single party in the early results. That gives him a leading position in the new parliament, but Israel's proportional system awards power through coalition-building rather than simply finishing first. His bloc's current total leaves him seven seats short. ^[1][3]

His alternative is to bring a smaller opposition party into his camp. Such a move would require a party elected against him to change sides, but it would avoid the Arab-party cooperation that Netanyahu has rejected. He said he wanted a strong right-wing government and opposed one dependent on Arab parties. ^[1]

Eisenkot, meanwhile, said the public had voted for change and against Netanyahu continuing as prime minister. Neither leader declared victory in the statements reported after the election. ^[1]

Their competing messages now face the same parliamentary test. Netanyahu needs an opposition partner to defect. Eisenkot needs enough opposition leaders to accept cooperation with Arab parties, on terms those parties will also accept. The current arithmetic gives each a route, and neither an easy one.

Ballots first, bargaining next

The remaining count could still alter those calculations. The BBC said the early results favored areas with strong right-wing support and that a high number of absentee ballots, mostly soldiers' votes, remained uncounted. It said a clear picture of the final result might take another day or two. The final seat allocation and any cross-party agreement are still unsettled. ^[1]

Once final results are presented, President Isaac Herzog will consult the leaders of elected parties and ask the candidate he considers most likely to form a coalition to try. That judgment concerns who can gather support, not simply whose party has the most seats. ^[1]

The candidate has up to six weeks to form a government, according to the BBC. If no one succeeds, another election follows. Coalition bargaining could take weeks or months, with Netanyahu's government remaining in a caretaker role in the meantime. ^[1]