61 seats decide Netanyahu's future, and neither bloc is on course for them

Israelis are voting in their first national election since the October 7, 2023 attacks, testing Benjamin Netanyahu's hold on power after three years of regional wars. ^[1]

The prime minister's Likud faces a close contest against an opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief whose centrist Yashar party is challenging Netanyahu on security, accountability and the burden of military service. The last pre-election surveys put the rivals neck and neck. ^[1][3]

Voting is under way on October 27, 2026, and no result is yet known. Even when the votes are counted, the largest party will need partners: governing requires the support of at least 61 members of the 120-seat Knesset, Israel's parliament. ^[1][2]

About 7.3 million people are eligible to vote, according to the Central Elections Committee figures cited by Al Jazeera. They are choosing party lists rather than directly electing a prime minister, making the strength of smaller parties crucial to who ultimately takes office. ^[2]

The choice is sharpest over who should answer for the failures surrounding the Hamas-led attacks and who should serve in the military. It is narrower over Palestinian statehood and several security goals. Eisenkot offers a change of leadership while sharing some of Netanyahu's positions on the conflict that will confront the next government. ^[1][3]

Accountability reaches the ballot

Eisenkot has pledged to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7 security failures. Netanyahu's government has resisted setting one up. That gives voters a concrete choice over how the state should investigate the disaster, alongside the broader judgement they make about its leadership. ^[1]

Netanyahu has built his campaign around his security credentials and his relationship with US President Donald Trump, arguing that he is best placed to keep Israelis safe. The election follows years of fighting involving Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, and comes amid Israel's growing international isolation, according to France 24. ^[1]

Eisenkot's military background gives the opposition a challenger with security credentials of his own, while his inquiry pledge promises a different approach to assigning responsibility. Both have made security central to their campaigns. ^[1]

Military service presents an immediate test of how either side would govern. Netanyahu's coalition includes far-right ultra-nationalist parties and ultra-Orthodox parties seeking to preserve exemptions for religious students. The opposition has attacked his support for those exemptions as the military faces personnel shortages. ^[1]

Yashar proposes ending blanket exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men and imposing sanctions for evasion. Its platform would retain a limited study exemption for three percent of each year's group of ultra-Orthodox men reaching draft age. ^[3]

That proposal turns a broad argument about sharing the burden into a policy voters can judge. It also creates a difficult question for coalition talks: parties defending wide exemptions and a party promising sanctions would have to resolve a direct conflict over who must serve. ^[1][3]

A leadership change with limits

Eisenkot's centrist label does not signal support for a Palestinian state. He opposes its establishment and supports Israeli settlements, while also promising to crack down on violent settlers. ^[1][3]

Yashar's security platform calls for confronting Iran, dismantling Hamas's rule in Gaza and containing Hezbollah in Lebanon. Those commitments give voters a clearer picture of the alternative on offer than a simple division between the incumbent and his opponents. ^[3]

Eisenkot has also said that, faced with a choice between continued Hamas rule and the Palestinian Authority, he would consider the Authority preferable. That is a conditional position on who might govern, alongside his opposition to Palestinian statehood. ^[3]

A victory for the opposition would therefore open a route to an independent inquiry and a different military-service policy. It would not, on Eisenkot's stated platform, amount to an endorsement of Palestinian sovereignty. Voters choosing to remove Netanyahu would be choosing those positions together. ^[1][3]

The consequences extend to people without a ballot. About three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem do not vote in Israel's election, according to Al Jazeera, although decisions by the government affect their borders, movement and legal status. Palestinian citizens of Israel are eligible to vote. ^[2]

The number that decides power

The parliamentary arithmetic could frustrate either contender. Before election day, neither bloc appeared on course for an outright majority, according to Al Jazeera. A lead in votes or seats would give a party strength in negotiations, but would not itself deliver the premiership. ^[2]

Predominantly Arab party lists could become pivotal in a close result. Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has publicly said he would partner with them, leaving a potential source of parliamentary support outside either leader's declared coalition plans. ^[1]

Eisenkot also needs his opposition partners to agree on how to turn their combined seats into a government. Netanyahu faces his own task of assembling 61 supporters from Likud and parties willing to join it. The contest between the two men will ultimately be settled through agreements among several parties. ^[1][2]

Final results may take days. Coalition negotiations could then last weeks or months, and failure to form a government could send Israelis back to another election. ^[1][2]