Netanyahu Has the Biggest Party and Still Not a Majority

Israel's completed vote count left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc eight seats short of a majority, with his opponents divided over the Arab-party support that could put them in power. ^[1][2]

Figures attributed to the Central Elections Committee on October 29 gave Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats, the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot 48 and two Arab-led lists 19 in the 120-seat Knesset, Israel's parliament. A majority requires 61. ^[2]

Verification and formal certification remain pending. But the reported totals set the terms for coalition talks already under way: Eisenkot needs partners his allies have rejected, while Netanyahu needs lawmakers from a camp that campaigned to remove him. Netanyahu remains in office during the negotiations. ^[2][3]

The Daily Inference reported on October 28 that the partial count left both blocs below a majority and opposition leaders had erected barriers to working with Arab-led parties. Completion of the count has left those political barriers intact. ^[1][2]

"Israeli citizens fired Netanyahu," said opposition leader Yair Golan, who supports cooperation with Arab-led parties. He said his side would work to establish a government of change and rescue. The result has denied Netanyahu a majority, but it has not yet produced a government to replace him. ^[1][3]

Eisenkot has the numbers, if his allies agree

Eisenkot's opposition bloc and the Arab-led parties together hold 67 seats, six more than the threshold. The immediate obstacle is getting those lawmakers behind the same government. Several opposition leaders have ruled out either governing with Arab parties or relying on their support. ^[2][3]

Eisenkot, whose Yashar party finished with 21 seats, has met Naftali Bennett and Golan to discuss forming a government. Bennett's party won 12 seats. According to Al Jazeera, Golan supports a partnership with Arab-led parties, while the other political groups in the opposition alliance have rejected it. ^[1][2][3]

Golan has also met Mansour Abbas, leader of the Arab-led Ra'am party. The completed-count figures reported by i24NEWS gave Ra'am eight seats and the other Arab-led list, the Joint List, 11. Those totals would make both lists central to any attempt to turn the opposition's 48 seats into a majority. ^[1][2]

The talks therefore have to settle more than cabinet membership. They must establish whether enough opposition lawmakers will accept Arab-party support at all, including an arrangement in which those parties support a government without joining it. No agreement or conditions for such support have been announced. ^[1][2]

Avigdor Liberman has drawn lines on both sides. He said he would not serve in a government with Arab parties or Netanyahu, but would consider a coalition of Zionist parties that included Likud under another leader. Eisenkot has ruled out serving under Netanyahu, including through a deal that would rotate the premiership. ^[2]

Liberman's position leaves open a coalition involving Netanyahu's party while excluding Netanyahu himself. That is a different negotiation from assembling the 67 seats available to Eisenkot and the Arab-led lists. Neither route yet has an agreed set of partners. ^[2][3]

Netanyahu needs someone to cross over

Likud finished with 27 seats, ahead of Yashar's 21, according to the reported count. It is the largest party, but Netanyahu's allies collectively fall short of the support needed to govern. ^[2][3]

One possible route, according to The National, is to persuade members of Eisenkot's camp to join him. That would require politicians elected on a promise to remove Netanyahu to reverse course. The arithmetic demands at least eight additional seats for his 53-seat bloc to reach 61. ^[2][3]

His continued tenure gives him a role in the negotiations, but does not resolve that shortage. ^[2][3]

For both camps, the next breakthrough would have to be political rather than electoral: a party accepting a partner it has rejected, or lawmakers leaving the alignment on which they fought the election. The completed count supplies no easy coalition that leaders can simply sign into existence.

Herzog's choice comes next

President Isaac Herzog is due to receive the official results and consult parliamentary factions before selecting a Knesset member to try to form a coalition. He has urged party leaders to approach those consultations with an open mind. ^[2][3]

The process is unfolding alongside a dispute over election integrity. Netanyahu and Likud amplified allegations of fraud or foreign-assisted interference involving Arab-led parties, which those parties rejected. The elections committee chair said he could not verify the suspicions before asking the Shin Bet security agency to investigate. ^[1][3]

The Central Elections Committee said voting integrity at polling stations had been preserved. The Shin Bet's investigation into suspected foreign influence continued, and the agency cautioned against treating it as implicating an entire community. Eisenkot accused Netanyahu of using the allegations to delegitimise the election result. ^[1][2]

Herzog's consultations will now test which leaders can offer support beyond their own blocs. If neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can assemble a coalition, another election could follow, potentially early next year, according to The National. ^[2][3]