Atlantic Heat Engine May Have Slowed 14%, Satellite Study Suggests
A new estimate uses the North Atlantic's declining heat loss to trace changes in a current system that shapes climate and marine life. It offers another way to monitor the ocean, though the result still awaits peer review.
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The Atlantic circulation that carries heat north has weakened by about 14% over 30 years, according to a new satellite-based estimate with implications for climate, coastal seas and marine life.
The research, by Michael Bell, Richard Allan and colleagues, uses changes in the heat escaping from the North Atlantic to infer changes in the water moving through it. Satellites supply part of the evidence, alongside atmospheric reconstructions and climate models. They do not directly measure the current's flow.
The system, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, moves warm water north and colder water south at depth. Its reach makes a sustained slowdown important far beyond the ocean itself. NOAA says continued weakening could raise sea levels along the US East Coast and shift rainfall in South Africa, potentially causing drought.
The findings are in a preprint under journal review. The estimated decline of 14.2% carries an uncertainty almost as large as the estimate itself, at plus or minus 13.9%. The study estimates weakening, not the timing or likelihood of collapse.
Neil Fraser of the Scottish Association for Marine Science, who was not involved in the work, said the result was among the strongest evidence yet that the circulation has weakened over the past 40 years.
